Around the world, 2024 has been a year of disaster after disaster, escalating global risks for all. From democratic power houses like the United States, to war-ravaged countries like Ukraine, and Syria, the message is the same. The average individual is just looking for some semblance of protection, so that they may live. So, from the refugee fleeing tyranny to nation states, what changes in 2024 can inform us of the future?
Risk management techniques applied to the digital age have exposed, and can track, aggregate risk factors. Such factors have affected entire regions and also stable countries, such as the United States. I previously wrote about the changing face of politics in the Middle East, and why we need to understand what the motives and goals of such changes are. Where war is, ambition is not far away.
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In the United States, a brazen play by Trump Org has critically stalled President Biden’s bid to aid Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia. Putin has instigated some of the worst war crimes since World War 2, both in Ukraine and Syria. Yet, Trump org does not see an issue disabling Ukrainian support where and when they can.
As Syria exits a brutal 12-year revolutionary war, are they bucking the trend of war and conquest? I wrote about this in my article focusing on Abu Mohammad al-Golani’s HTS and their paramilitary leadership on the anti-Assad road to victory. The exploration of al-Golani’s evolution from jihadi to the revolutionary leader of HTS is telling. His recent moderation on many social and governance issues signals a professional awareness of the changing Middle East which Syria must now join.
Global Risks Hit Democracies in Europe and the United States
Democracies are the target of sophisticated hybrid warfare campaigns orchestrated by a Russian-led public/private alliance. These campaigns materially disrupt social discourse, erode public trust in government, and install pro-Russian false-narratives into the citizenry of target nations.
All European Union nations during last June’s EU Elections, along with the US Presidential Elections, were priority targets. The common processes used, along with the authoritarian agenda escalating in potency and reach, are informing. They highlight the need for citizens to be protected from a hybrid threat that has surpassed societal understanding.
I would love to say the risks that are railroading our societies toward a harmful direction will fizzle out over time, but sadly, I cannot. 2024’s risk landscape will see material threats evolving in both size and impact in 2025. Bearing in mind the gravity of this predication, submission to the changing world we live in is easy, especially if we do not comprehend what is coming.
Leaving 2024 Risks Behind
What is easy today may become harder tomorrow. Regardless of personal opinions, decisions need to be made on the way forward as a society. Understanding what our changing world is about takes time, patience, and a robust constitution. As the old saying goes, “its better to get smacked with the truth instead of being kissed by a lie”.
Through a risk-structured lens, we can work the problem and change with the world around us. To prepare where and when we can, we face this new world with a positive outlook. 2025 does not need to be as scary as in the past. What it needs is for us to be informed, aware, and ready to engage for a better future.
As we all sit down to our respective festivities or just take a break, the darkness that looks so scary from a distance takes on a much more meager and fraudulent form. For our new year’s resolution, let us clear the illusions fed to us, and work together on resolving what remains. We pursue our own destiny. No-one can take it from us without our permission. Let’s not give it today, nor tomorrow, nor any day thereafter.
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
