Syrians have endured intense violence in their 12-year revolutionary war against Bashir al-Assad’s autocratic, and often brutal, regime. This length of time has seen al-Assad’s opponents develop into an effective fighting force. Is their ultimate victory down to clever strategy in Syria by anti-government forces, or is it linked to regional shifts in power?
As a leading anti-government faction, the HTS are now leaders in the internal transition of power. This HTS hammer, led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, has been key in chiseling out this new reality for Syria. Will the Islamic hardliners win the argument against al-Golani, who is now striving for pluralism in a new Syria?
Over the years, al-Golani consolidated power in a series of inter-Jihaddi conflicts with ISIS and Al-Qaeda. He kept the al-Nusra Front’s focus squarely on Syria. In the Islamic world, this power play has established and developed al-Galoni’s reputation as a hard and powerful leader.
Al-Assad fleeing Syria, and his government’s prime-minister working with al-Golani’s force to establish a smooth transition of power is telling. This former al-Qaeda terrorist, turned al-Nusra fighter, turned HTS Commander, has had a professional evolution of remarkable note.
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In this evolution, his hardline stance as an Islamicist has developed with the times into an inclusive leader. This shows real promise for the future. He can continue his transformation for a better Syria if he manages his risk from current and former brothers in arms. Such a fate fell on a true Afghan hero, Ahmed Shah Massoud, also known as the Prince of Panjshir.
Breaking or Making Syria In A Post Conflict Era
From Islamic radical to conquering hero, al-Golani has grown beyond the confines of his prior affiliations. His tenure as a future Syrian politician is now conceivable. This is clear in how he views all Muslim and other minority faiths. The fresh perspective points to new relations with contributing partners like Turkey. It also interfaces with the changing political face of the Middle East.
When seeing al-Assad’s fall via a regional lens, it made sense in this wider context. I previously wrote about Israel’s sudden aggression against Gaza in retaliation for the October 7th attacks by Hamas. This is also an indicator of the changing face of Middle Eastern politics. Israel proved they are going nowhere, and so has al-Golani.
This makes them useful to those driving this new Middle East, which is forged from the blood of too many innocents. Where it goes from here is unclear for a simple reason. Israel, and al-Golani’s anti-Assad alliance, are contributors to these bloody changes. They are not the orchestrators, thus masking the real motives for this exceptional occurrence.
Changing Middle East and Syria
Clever moves made by Israel regarding Syria were a surprise given their aggressive track record of late. The bombing of Assad’s military hardware and key strategic positions has effectively neutralized Syrian offensive strike capability. This is good news in regimes from Riyah to Cairo, and back again.
In Syria, Israel has displayed self-interest in seizing Mount Hermon as a key strategic peak overlooking Syria and Lebanon. Advance surveillance capabilities that magically didn’t appear on October 7th are now present, which de-escalates Israeli aggression in a post-Assad Syria.
Lebanon has been under the thumb of Hezbollah for decades, which is now affected by their losses because of Israeli airstrikes. Unlike some, I think Hezbollah will not only rebuild under Iran’s patronage; they will instigate a fierce response to anybody who challenges them within Lebanon. One may consider any such actions to be domestic terrorism in a nation ill-equipped to fight it.
Changing Faces Can Bring No Change
My impression of al-Golani is of a man intent on bringing Syria back from the hell it has endured under the Assad regime. The brutal revolutionary war, which was extended by Russian and Iranian involvement, seems to be what solidified his intent. His quick follow on actions from battlefield victory signals competence, pre-planning and international help.
I only hope in al-Golani had the wisdom to trade with his allies in a manner that will not see him betray those who need his help the most. Innocent Syrian civilians of all Muslim, and other faiths are relying on him to lead them out of hell, and back to planet earth. This new Middle East can still fail as a region, but only if men like Abu Mohammad al-Golani let it.
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
