In the last ten years, hybrid warfare has gone through a malicious evolution. As Russian sabotage reasserts itself with more Baltic sea-based infrastructure attacks, a Finnish-led maritime intervention stopped a Russian linked shadow-oil tanker on December 26th of last year. Why is this action taken by Finland so contentious to Russia, as the tanker is not Russian registered?
What provokes ire from Russia is the interception of one of its key re-supply assets, designed to skirt around sanctions imposed for its rampant war crimes. I honestly cannot say why such interceptions have only happened now, but assume the abundance of caution is because of Russia’s nuclear nation status.
Hybrid Warfare Strikes In the Baltic
In hybrid warfare, digital subversion as coordinated disinformation, and misinformation campaigns by Russia have been impactful. Their demonstration of perceived invincibility aligns with weaponized false narratives by damaging Baltic underwater infrastructure. As a grand gesture, it fits. It drives the indoctrinated further down the gaslighted rabbit hole.
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In such a fabricated world, perception alters to make the target audience’s host government a threat, and Russia, their liberator. The relatively cheap cost associated with hybrid warfare demands some expensive regular military operations to achieve the objectives of the campaign.
The Nordstream sabotage from 2022 looked like Russia, but no-one is sure about it. Attacking with no consequences looks like an infrastructure-attack victory for Russia. Regardless of who done it, the attack also acts as a perceptual validation of Russia’s invincibility. This is at the core of so many of their weaponized false-narratives designed for western consumption.
Russian Allies Lend Indirect Support
That Russia tried again on November 15th of last year, and in the Baltic sea is telling. After their use of the Chinese vessel “Yi Peng 3” to cut underwater sea cables, it adds a new twist to Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy. The Chinese association is a risky, yet bold move for the rogue state.
Using a private carrier of Chinese origin, and leaving a Russian port, they stopped off in the Baltic to trawl their anchor over the Baltic sea floor for over 100 miles. Their actual mission was to cut underwater cables. The Danish Navy intercepted them, but only after they completed their mission for the Kremlin.
Russia’s public/private alliance of like-minded authoritarians have enormous resources and influence in the world. The ‘shadow-fleet’ of aging tankers working for Russia has a primary mission to bring fuel to sanctioned state. After the Estlink-2 cable sabotage on Christmas day, 2024, the Finnish led maritime response seized a prime suspect.
Less than twenty-four hours later, Finnish security forces boarded a Russin-linked shadow-tanker named ‘Eagle S’, which was registered in the Cook Islands.
Underwater Cables Attacked Again
The flexibility afforded to Russia by its alliance of well-established and well-funded private businesses is telling. From the 2022 Nordstream investigations to ongoing responses by Finland, and other affected parties, the message is obvious. Below the threshold of war is where Russia’s state-sponsored sabotage lies, making these attacks acts of hybrid warfare.
The targeted nations, in response, cite criminal reasons for their actions. This fits Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy to a tee. While Russian stooges, sock puppets and politicians rabbit out pre-defined lines of denial and dissent towards the west; Russia’s hybrid warfare architects gain from a potent shadow benefit.
Future Battle of Will
The real target audience for these attacks, and their weaponized false narratives, lies within target nations. This cohort of the target population becomes more and more convinced of Russia’s correctness, righteousness, and power. It saps their trust in their own people, and even each other. It then leads to erosion in their own governance and culture, with a matching deterioration of personal will.
Nobody can dictate to you, or anybody else, what lies in your heart. We are all different in so many ways. What makes us human is our shared purpose, our shared values, and our shared experience of the world. These traits can propel us to the stars when good people influence social discourse.
The same process can see us die in ruin, if we let bad-actors like Russia disrupt what we know, and replace it with what they want us to know. These false narratives, if unchallenged, will have only one winner. If the winner of this shadow war is not to be Putin and his associates, we must commit our personal will to preserving our values, what we know, and our culture.
Today’s perception of hopelessness can dissolve in the face of both our courage and our resolve. Nobody should write-off their precious democracies to an enormous parlor trick by authoritarians. Our future is in our hands, always.
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
