As the old saying goes, “politics and war are extensions of each other”. On Saturday morning (26th October, 2024), Israel launched airstrikes against the Iranian capital, Tehran. This limited escalation in hostilities between Iran and Israel robustly validates that old saying. Can peaceful societies in western nations be subdued by the drug of peace?
As Nietzsche famously said, “Sometimes people don’t want to hear the truth because they don’t want their illusions destroyed.” To focus on the headlines without looking deeper thus becomes an attractive response. Iran’s response is currently undergoing intense internal debate within the Islamic republic.
Iran Seeks A Long Shadow
Iran, from some accounts, was not responsible for the Hamas attacks on October 7th. Those attacks triggered Israel’s wanton escalation of aggression with its neighbors. While the same commentators accept Iran ‘cashed in’ on it, the hyper aggressive response by Israel is dubious as to motives.
Opening up conflict escalation in Gaza, conflict escalation in Lebanon, and now directly hitting Tehran makes no sense for a nation claiming self defence. Intelligence led responses in small nations do not advocate for a blanketed military response. This is especially true when such a response is reliant on draftees to supplement military strength.
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Israel lives in a tough regional neighborhood, and its military aggression in prior escalations followed the lead of good intelligence. This integrated approach tempered responses via closely aligned politics, intelligence, and military operations. It has served Israel relatively well in the past, but is not apparent since the Netanyahu regime has been in power.
Israel Changes Signal Conquest
October 7th’s responses by Israel were more tempered to a regime intent on military expansion, not societal defence. The bombing of Gaza was one example that veered off Israel’s prior track record of controlled responses. This time, civilians were the target for airstrikes designed to destroy city-blocks in a highly populus city.
The Israeli Government’s threat to civilians to get out of Gaza, or face the might of the Israeli Army, was another act of conquest, not self defence. Also, the humanitarian consequences of such threats did not stop Iran and Hezbollah from muscling into a war that does not directly concern them, or does it?
Iran Uses Hezbollah In Hybrid Strategies
Hezbollah’s opportunism and mouthy engagement on social media are suspicious. They had a cohesion and structure which screams of ‘full spectrum of warfare’ doctrine. The implementation tool is hybrid warfare, also known as grey-zone conflict. Israel’s veering off course from prior track record in responding to attacks is a lower-level feature. Active disinformation campaigns and meddling in the affairs of many western democracies by Iran is another.
Well funded, hybrid warfare implementations against European democracies are impactful. They act as an instantaneous extension of strategic influence (for Iran) in this case. Less than 5 hours after Israel struck, the first protests appeared in my local mall in Dublin, Ireland. Cohesion, organization, and orchestration have added virtual punch to any Iranian response.
What may temper Iran’s response is their intended charm offensive for courting the West. Also, the unyielding US support for Israeli sovereignty may be a strategic consideration. Regarding the Israeli airstrikes, Iran’s Arab neighbors qualified their support in an unusual show of tailored solidarity, which shows two things.
A New Middle Eastern Stage Is Under Construction
First, the politics of the region are reacting at scale to the power of digital subversion, as western nations become perceptually weakened by incessant hybrid warfare campaigns waged against them. Primarily executed by Russia and China, democracies in the US and the EU have been key targets in this disruption of social discourse and erosion of public trust. As time passes, this will weaken the will of any western nation to respond to hostile moves in the Middle East.
Second, middle eastern politics is essentially a series of power plays. Some mundane, some sneaky, and others barbaric. The qualified support for Iran shows old rivalries set aside in a qualified fashion without directly condemning Israel. The substantial influence of the United States appears to have strategically interacted with Iran’s Arab neighbors to temper their response. It has also interacted with Israel to reign in the Netanyahu regime’s scope of aggression.
It’s fair to say that it could have been much worse, and for now, the road to diplomacy is open. Hidden under the noise of digital subversion, we can see our reality change in ways that are frightening the first time around. Scary as it is, we must never abandon the truth. Today’s lies come with an unprecedented price on our way of life.
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
