Senior leaders of government have the unenviable task of national security decision making. Those decisions can affect millions of its citizens, and the future direction of their nation. With the Russia-Ukraine war, the duplicitous and persistent lying of the Russian administration has created, for many, uncertainty around what makes up a truth from Russia.
In following this bloody war, I have noted two things. The Russian Army’s list of war crimes has dramatically increased, which correlates to a similar rise in the Ukrainian Army’s discipline, professionalism, and ever-increasing capabilities. This correlation also relates to my second point.
Sneaky Tactics By Russia
Russia’s subversive activities have sky rocketed in nations supporting Ukraine, which includes intimidation and aggressive military posturing. If you distill information about this on English-speaking platforms, two things become clear.
First, Russia is indeed a rogue state, but relies heavily on its global disinformation networks to implement its digital subversion campaigns. Intimidation and stroking of societal fears via disinformation in target nations are part of its digital subversion process. Interestingly, Russia’s threat of using nuclear weapons triggered a rare joint US/UK intelligence warning regarding the possibility.
Also of note is the axis of disclosed cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran in relation to nukes. In relation to digital subversion, the axis of aligned nations extends beyond these four states. It was the threatened use of nukes in the Russian narrative, which triggered responses from US and UK intelligence agencies. Is it fear of a possibility, or is it probable?
I note Russia did not counter this response from Vauxhall Cross or Langley. In a disinformation reliant strategy like Russia has, what you don’t contradict, you implicitly endorse. Nuclear war will end Russia, and life as we know it. Yet, Putin and his regime persist in this high-stakes form of intimidation.
From Russia With Menace
As they are competent in rewriting reality for their citizens, and ours if we are not careful; the perceived downsides to such a gamble can be seen as limited. The Kyiv Independant picked up on unconfirmed reports by US Intelligence. Of note, they frame the latest set of non-nuclear threats of lethal force against nation states supporting Ukraine as preceding a key meeting of President Zelensky with President Biden of the USA.
Aired US fears revolve around long-range weapons’ permission to strike back into Russian territory. Whilst not an unreasonable fear, it does not bear digital subversion, nor nation state position regarding Ukraine in mind. These policy positions all reflect the communal will of their people, who are learning to become information resilient in the digital space.
It’s my view that Russia’s threats on nukes should be, as a precautionary measure, viewed as credible, and measures taken to mitigate against the risk. Then again, that should already be in place, so a well-prepared nation should have nothing to do on this point.
On the second point of Russian retaliation for long-range weapons permissions for Ukraine. Russia is already targeting the United States in a brazened fashion. Already escalated in its espionage, societal meddling via digital and also physical means, Russia is targeting all European countries.
Russia Calling Our Bluff
This posturing for war by Russia, and now China, seems to be suicidal for the rogue state. However, when we remove what we don’t know, what remains is telling. Russia’s reliance on digital subversion, coordinated with cybercrime and other forms of digital espionage, shows a cheap strategic arc. This strategic arc is fear based, not destruction based. Russia is calling our bluff in a dangerous game of cat-and-mouse poker.
It’s my view that President Biden should sensibly allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons, ensure supply chain stability for staged victory milestones, and hold President Zelensky responsible for its implementation. This has two benefits.
First, it shifts the war to Ukraine’s favor. The Russian axis of western conquest is utterly reliant on Ukrainian defeat and assimilation into a larger military force under Moscow’s control. Denied this, Moscow is without the future means to execute its war of conquest against the West.
Second, the nature of digital subversion and the full spectrum of warfare doctrine by Russia are immersive. This fully integrated approach has many linked actions as you travel from below the threshold of war to above it. Russia’s success heavily relies on achieving goals in its early stage digital subversion campaigns, yet they never factored Ukrainian resistance into account.
All or Nothing
Its power base seems to have banked everything in a swift Ukrainian defeat. This has also revealed the extent of Russian espionage operations in Western democracies, as they try to compensate for their Ukrainian failure. I think Russia is still responding by tweaking their current strategy.
Increasing geo-political and military posturing to install fear into countries they are already meddling with increases the fear temperature. By calling their bluff in response, we recover the initiative and force a change up by these axis powers. This gives Ukraine the air she needs to win, and the West the room she needs to understand and secure its future against this new form of warfare.
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
