As celebrations wind down in the Kremlin over Donald Trump’s victory, national elections of member states in the European Union come back into focus. Despite the barbarism of Russian forces in Ukraine, Africa and elsewhere, Putin’s most potent weapon is, by far, hybrid warfare. Europe is not prepared, nor ready for this shadow invasion.
Enabled by American social media platforms for its digital subversion component, hybrid warfare campaigns made prolific gains to support Russian objectives. It also sets a new level of competency, complexity, and sophistication for this new method of warfare.
Just this month, Russia’s global information networks have convinced Americans in the US Presidential election that they voted in a patriot. In fact, they voted in a convicted criminal with the best interests of himself, and then the Kremlin at heart. They have also sewn social disruption and social chaos into European democracies. We can see evidence of this in the manufactured political turmoil and social unrest.
Germany Grapples With Hybrid Warfare Effects
The far right AfD party has become a political force in Germany. Pundits expect them to make more gains in what can be called an ill-informed decision to hold their national elections next February. The error is not in Germany holding them. Germany’s error lies in underestimating the actual influence Russia has made within its national borders.
From Terror to Valor: Echoes and Shadows, available at your favorite digital bookstore
The Harris-Walz campaign thought they could handle hybrid warfare influence in the US presidential elections just this month. Germany assumes hybrid warfare will not affect the outcome of their national elections. Evidence of this is publically sharing a target date in February 2025. Established Russian led information networks in Germany now have a target window to deploy hybrid warfare campaigns.
I cannot overstate the detritus effect that this method of warfare is having on democracies who do not accept its impact, and thus, do not clinically address its effects. Even in Ireland, where wisdom prevailed with a circa 3 weeks lead time to elections, politicians are not grasping its full scope.
Ireland Heads Into National Elections
Initiatives such as addressing our defence forces for funding and new structures are most welcome. However, the timeline for introduction and the history of backsliding in a pre to post election position are just one worry. Even if implemented, this defence and brainstorming based timeline will not have any material effect on the penetration of Russian-led influence via hybrid warfare.
In established and active hybrid warfare campaign scenarios, months, not years, count. We in Europe have had years to prepare based on the experiences of Eastern European countries. Russia started its European conquest tour with dirty cooperation from Belarus. Ukraine refused to follow, and Putin’s soviet bias kicked in with a full-scale Ukrainian invasion.
After Russia’s ‘quick’ invasion of Ukraine backfired, Putin’s digital authoritarian partners had proved the power of digital subversion. This made it a keynote in Russia’s full spectrum of warfare doctrine. It caused a Russian strategy-pivot from what was to what worked. Hybrid warfare success is unprecedented, stemming from the period just after Russia’s Crimea invasion.
In order for democracy to survive this shadow assault, all democratic nations need to accept and fully understand this impact. They can then use this knowledge to plan a robust response.
Informed Political And Societal Reformation In Europe
This means that, for Ireland as an example to address this national threat, a full spectrum of threats needs to feature in a national reformation. Current plans by some reputable political parties in Ireland bear some merit. Also notable are those parties been prime targets for the same hybrid warfare campaigns they wish to address.
While I support societal education on information resilience and digital safety, a much deeper reformation is required. International cooperation, all government departments, and the Irish people need to feature in such an undertaking. A layered reformation strategy should address how and why this happens. These aspects should also accompany what we as individuals, or individual departments, can do about it.
The how and the why are politically sensitive as they involve American social media platforms, along with a fascist-styled regime about to take office in the United States. The risks also range from the sponsors of, to the actual threat actors involved in hybrid warfare campaigns.
A kernel ingredient to unduly influencing and indoctrinating an individual, a community, and a country lies in the repetitive delivery of weaponized false narratives. This means that without social media platforms as a vehicle to deliver weaponized false narratives and suppress resistance, threat actors cannot sustain the effect of hybrid warfare on a target populus.
Americans have a saying, “if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t winning”. Maybe it’s time for democracy to change the rules and revisit our reality as it is, not what we wish it to be. Balanced vision and courage will be our gifts to the next generation, who will get to vote in free and fair elections. Democracy is our legacy, so let’s treasure and protect it.
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
