June has been a busy month for NATO spy catchers and law enforcement in Europe. Estonia caught and sentenced a university professor with pro Russian affiliations. Professor Viacheslav Morozov received up to eight years in prison. Convicted of spying on behalf of Russia’s military intelligence service, known as GRU, his treason against Estonia became complete.
What’s striking is the timing and locations of these countries, which Russia is targeting as part of a larger strategy. It’s fair to say that this is riding in the wake of nearly a decade of digital subversion, structured disinformation and its (social media) enabled delivery to citizens of target nations.
Russia targets Estonia and other Western Nations
Russia’s effective collaboration with like-minded partners has led to the strategic structuring and weaponization of false narratives. Soliciting sympathy, altering views of who is friend and foe, and where allegiances lie is now possible to engineer.
The truly scary part of it all is the integrated use of digital means, such as how Russia incorporates intelligence on Estonians offered by the Estonian traitor. In this case, social media becomes a vehicle of access for Russian intelligence services. It enables recruitment, along with refinement of disinformation structures and approaches.
What was once out of reach to the KGB during the cold war is now a key weapon-set for the Kremlin. Some two years after Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, the locations of these Estonian arrests fall into a Russian strategic path of conquest.
From Terror to Valor: Echoes and Shadows, available on pre-order for September 11th release.
In 2022, Russia’s lies and false flag operations around the Ukrainian invasion signalled a larger strategy at play. The disinformation plague on social media in western nations, the impact of COVID, and its acceleration of the perception of Russian invincibility were headline features.
Anti-Government Sentiment on the rise in Europe
The anti (western) government sentiment, backed by enormous digital disinformation campaigns, gained a real foothold in the disruption of western societies. It was also clear Russia was not capable of beating the EU or NATO in a fair fight. As the old saying goes, if you can’t kick down their front door, sneak in the backdoor.
With weakened and disrupted societal discourse, the backdoor has now become possible thanks to digital subversion. In a democracy, this digital weapon starts from the ordinary citizen and eventually goes all the way to senior government. I still think to this day, that a northern arc of conquest via Estonia, given its size, or a southern arc of conquest via Poland and Germany, are most likely in any future western advance by Russia.
Germany foils Russian operation against a Ukrainian national
This makes June’s Estonian conviction, along with the German arrests of three spies, interesting. A Russian, an Armenian, and a Ukrainian, who allegedly work for Russia’s foreign intelligence service, travelled to Germany to collect information on a Ukrainian individual. Kudos to Germany’s security services, who intervened and disrupted the reconnaissance part (1st stage) of the kill chain.
My debut novel, From Terror to Valor: Echoes and Shadows, coincidentally features the southern arc of Russian conquest I mentioned earlier. Terrorism by state actors like Russia or non-state actors like ISIS/ISIL often share common tactics, techniques, and strategies.
Explored in my thriller genre novel, which I started researching in 2018, I find it eerie that Russia has roughly taken the place of my antagonist in terms of likely strategic routes. While the goals of my fictitious story and Russia’s actual story are different, the underlying beast of terrorism is the same.
Russia’s shadow war against the West
I have grown to admire the free spirit and tenacity of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. In May of this year, she said that Russia is waging a “shadow war” against the West. She is very correct, and echoes a well-known sentiment among the cyber security and intelligence communities.
Left unchecked, Russia will come to ‘liberate’ our land with a brutality not seen in Europe since World War Two. This shadow war is as invasive as nazi Germany was in the 1930, but more complex in scope and delivery. Their overall victory is reliant on our acceptance of their truths, as presented by these malicious campaigns.
Planned with expert precision, refined with experience and knowhow, they are a threat to us all as they reach our digital devices. However, also true is that no amount of clever planning and expert orchestration can detract from a fundamental fact.
If we assert ourselves with those who address us with such malicious content, the impact of their campaign and follow on potential is mitigated, one post at a time. It can start today by not letting someone sway our underlying trust in government, belief in our homeland, and all we stand for. When someone tells you your country is broken, tell them to wake up and look around. It’s not broken, and neither are we!
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
