Hybrid warfare—also known as grey zone conflict—has intensified dramatically across Europe following the recent Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. As Russia, China, and the United States navigate shifting alliances, European nations face a fresh wave of digital subversion, sabotage, and espionage. The pressing question is this–can Europe defend itself, or will this hybrid warfare escalation consume our democratic foundations?
The Rising Threat of a Hybrid Warfare Escalation
Hybrid warfare blends cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, sabotage, and proxy actors. In 2024, disinformation campaigns heavily targeted European democracies to destabilize public trust, lawmakers, and elections. These efforts mirrored similar interference in the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
Russia’s attempts to stir anti-Ukrainian sentiment largely failed as European citizens began to recognize and resist digital manipulation. This growing information resilience forced hybrid warfare into a more aggressive, physical phase. We saw Russia partnering with Chinese-registered ships to cut underwater sea cables in the Baltic Sea. We now expect more frequent attacks against a wider target range.
From Digital Subversion to Physical Sabotage
With diminishing returns from online disinformation, Russia and its allies are escalating physical operations: espionage, sabotage, and direct assaults on critical infrastructure. Recent incidents illustrate the developing strategy:
UK Attacks: Saboteurs infiltrated RAF Brize Norton, damaging military aircraft engines to disrupt UK and Ukraine-linked operations. Separately, a fire at a 1960s-era Heathrow substation highlighted the targeting of critical infrastructure. One may expect this later amplified through weaponized false narratives online.
Moldova’s Elections: Moldova expects Russia to launch unprecedented interference with its 2025 elections, but physical realities exposed and weakened its digital propaganda. Leaders from Germany, France and Poland attended Moldova’s 2025 independence day celebrations in a show of solidarity and pledged support for Moldova’s ascension to the European Union.
Germany’s Drone Surveillance: Russian drone operators conducted reconnaissance missions over eastern Germany, focusing on defense manufacturing and supply lines supporting Ukraine. Many believe the Russian drone pilots are operating from ships in the Baltic Sea.
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This shows a physical shift to kinetic operations under the hybrid warfare strategy developed by Russia and its partners. Unsurprisingly, this is denied by the Kremlin in a procedural response to the allegations.
The Alaska Summit and Strategic Shift
The Trump Putin “Alaska Summit” served as a pivotal moment in Russia’s hybrid strategy. Following this, reconnaissance flights over German supply chains suggested a new phase: greater reliance on kinetic sabotage and espionage to supplement waning digital influence. Over the next two years, Europe may face heightened threats against airports, power stations, and other critical infrastructure.
Defending European Democracies
Since World War II, European citizens have enjoyed unprecedented freedoms and stability. Now, hybrid warfare threatens to undermine these foundations. But resilience is possible:
Information resilience: by recognizing and resisting disinformation, citizens reduce its effectiveness.
Stronger Security Collaboration: European states must coordinate cyber defense, counter-espionage, and infrastructure protection.
Active Civil Awareness: Citizens must understand how weaponized false narratives work to divide societies.
Russia’s hybrid warfare escalation thrives on deception and overconfidence. Its defeat lies in its inability to adapt to resilient, informed democracies. If Europe strengthens both its information defenses and its physical security infrastructure, we can break Russia’s hybrid warfare grip on our nations. Then, we take back a wider initiative where we merge our lessons learned into action for a more secure future.
About the Author
As I move onto my next authoring project, I will post less frequently on the real-world issues linked to my novel, From Terror to Valor: Echoes and Shadows. My next project, Hindsight Station, will initially be a progression science fiction, web-novel delivered via Patreon and eventually another web serial platform.
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and science fiction genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
