As anxiety about Russia’s hybrid warfare activities increase in the western world, it is important for everybody to note two things. First, accept its happening is not only an act of awareness regarding those with hostile intent, it’s also an act of self-defence. Second, Russia’s reliance on our ignorance about their subversive activities is equally reliant on our society being digitally engaged.
Their idea is to deploy a demographic spread of weaponized false narratives into a society via digital means. We know if unchecked, it will eventually spill over into the physical communities. This orchestration happens over time and directly targets users via social media. It also bypasses any traditional security controls a nation may have.
Hybrid Warfare Has Democracy On the Back Foot
It appears Russia has all the cards to play, and we have none. Democracy has been on the back-foot for some time in this new form of hybrid warfare (also called grey-zone conflict). It’s also noted Russia and her partners have done real societal damage in their campaigns, which is currently increasing in impact and efficacy.
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However, like all professional card players, Russia’s poker face hides the truth of how vulnerable their hubris has made them. Using western internet services, western technology, western social media platforms, and even western based information networks has created vulnerabilities for Russia and her partners.
Also of note, Russia, and for the time being, China, know that the mobilized armies of the West can deliver a terrible defeat in response to any direct conflict above the threshold of war. When brawn is not possible, sneaky becomes attractive, or as the old saying goes, “if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t winning!”
Russia Adopts Digital Subversion
What is striking about Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy is the utter reliance on digital subversion in the pursuit of lofty goals. Digital subversion, as a low-cost alternative to grand armies of conquest, has allowed Moscow to punch above her weight. However, as we have seen in Ukraine, the Russian military is incapable of fulfilling its part in an overall hybrid warfare strategy.
Ukraine’s fierce resistance has debunked the carefully crafted narratives around Russia’s projection of its military power. Russia’s response was to intensify their digital subversion campaigns, which show they are incapable of militarily defeating Ukraine without cheating.
Under fire from digital subversion, we as citizens can do our part by becoming information resilient to protect ourselves and also the future of our democracy. For the government, I am sure military mobilization in the traditional spectrum of warfare is not an issue. What is an issue is the change-up required to meet this hybrid warfare threat.
Russia’s Strength Lies In Our Weakness
Nations need to stop making excuses for willful business decisions in their jurisdictions, giving support to Russia’s (or any other aggressor) logistical needs. This includes allowing access to the user base of their citizenry on social media platforms.
Also of note are the troll farms, logistical support supplied by nations hosting them, and their existing relationships with powerful democracies like the United States. Democratic nations need to leverage their full range of options in protecting their sovereignty and their society.
Russia, and her partners in hybrid warfare, rely on digital subversion. It, in turn, relies on cybercrime for access, intelligence, and also offensive actions such as remote critical infrastructure attacks. If Russia cannot achieve a critical amount of its core campaign objectives, then the interrelatedness of their impact will reduce materially. This will compromise their hybrid warfare campaign.
Nations should set out to identify, understand, and disrupt these types of subversive campaign actions. Disrupting core aspects of any hybrid warfare campaign is where a responding nation takes back the initiative. France recently compromised Russia’s ability to communicate with its war machine, by arresting Telegram’s CEO, Pavel Durov.
Hybrid Warfare Is The Trigger, Democracy Is The Future
Despite these successes, the elements disrupted may not lead to victory on its own. Transnational threats like digital subversion and cybercrime are leading reasons why no one democracy can go it alone. At FirstConn2022, I remember interviewing Viktor Zhora, the then Director of State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine for Irish Tech News.
He and his two co-workers made several fiercely relevant points back then, with one resonating to this day. He highlighted the transnational threat of cybercrime. Viktor talked about the different cyber security initiatives in the EU and elsewhere, noting it was not sufficient when facing a transnational threat.
This insight escalates in importance when you think of the current nature of hybrid warfare. In order to address and defeat a hard to define threat that is fiercely affecting; we need to band together transnationally, and form an all-inclusive body of like-minded nations.
When avarice transnationally binds the fate of aggressive state and non-state actors engaged in hybrid warfare, we must respond. An international body tasked with combating hybrid warfare based on common values and trust in each other is the answer. It will secure democracy for our unborn children. I could think of no finer legacy we could offer.
About the Author
John is a versatile author known for his gripping fiction narratives in the thriller, action, and suspense genres. With a background as a journalist since 2016, and expertise in cloud technologies as an engineer; John brings a unique blend of storytelling prowess and technical acumen to his work.
